Delhi Monsoon: Failure to predict of southwest Monsoon advance ‘rare and uncommon’, says IMD


The weather department said it had indicated that moist easterly winds would spread into northwest India including Delhi, from 10 July. However, there was no significant rainfall activity over the National Capital even though it rained at neighbouring places

Representational image. AP

New Delhi: As rains continued to play truant in Delhi, the India Meteorological Department on Monday said the failure of numerical models in predicting the monsoon advance over the National Capital this time is “rare and uncommon”.

The weather department said its latest model analysis had indicated that moist easterly winds in lower level from the Bay of Bengal would spread into northwest India covering Punjab and Haryana by 10 July, leading to advance of monsoon and increase in rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from 10 July onward.

Accordingly, the moist easterly winds have spread into northwest India, the IMD said in a statement.

These moisture-laden winds have led to an increase in cloudiness and relative humidity. It also led to revival of monsoon over the region and occurrence of fairly widespread or widespread rainfall activity over east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and scattered rainfall over Punjab and west Rajasthan, it said.

However, it did not cause significant rainfall activity over Delhi even though there was rainfall activity over neighbouring places around Delhi. Such type of failure by numerical models in prediction of monsoon advance over Delhi is rare and uncommon, the IMD said.

The IMD is monitoring the situation continuously and will provide regular updates on the advance of monsoon into remaining parts of northwest India, including Delhi, the statement read.

Southwest Monsoon rains reached the desert district of Jaisalmer and Ganganagar, its last outposts, on Monday, but gave Delhi and parts of Haryana a miss.

It rained in the periphery of Delhi – Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana – but clouds hovered over the National Capital, without giving any relief from the heat.

The rains also covered west Rajasthan, Punjab and other parts of Haryana.

In 2002, monsoon reached Delhi on 19 July. This is the most-delayed monsoon in the city since then.

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