The Weather Report: North India braces for another dry spell; east and south to immerse in rainfall-India News , Firstpost


The Weather Report: Under the impact of tropical cyclone Asani, weather warnings have been issued by the IMD

May is the hottest month of the year in India and started with the set standards, On 1 May Bikaner in Rajasthan recorded 47.1°C maximum temperature and it is the highest temperature in the country during the past week.
As the week progressed ahead parts of North India including the National Capital Region saw a wind reversal and winds started blowing from the East adding to discomfort as humidity started rising but under the influence of Western Disturbance parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh observed rainfall and hailstorms on 4 and 6 May leading to significant fall in day temperatures and the prolonged spell of Heatwave abated as the maximum temperature came down to below 40°C levels.

Some 24 hours rainfall figures from the plains of North India recorded till 8:30 am on 5 May:

• Punjab:

Patiala 39.0mm
Fatehgarh Sahib 22.0mm
Ballowal 19.4mm
Balachaur 17.5mm
Rauni 14.5mm
Adampur 11.0mm
Pathankot 9.0mm
Ropar 5.5mm
Barnala 4.5mm
Ludhiana 2.6mm
Gurdaspur 2.6mm

• Chandigarh:

Airport 8.0mm
City 6.2mm

• Haryana:

Karnal 30.8mm
Karnal NDRI 27.0mm
Kurukshetra 8.0mm
Sonipat 7.0mm
Kaithal 5.5mm
Damla 4.5mm
Mahendragarh 3.0mm
Manesar 3.0mm
Faridabad 3.0mm
Ambala 2.6mm
Gurgaon 2.0mm

• Delhi:

Narela 13.5mm
Ridge 8.8mm
Pitampura 7.5mm
Ayanagar 7.0mm
Ujwa 3.0mm

• Uttar Pradesh:

Muzaffarnagar 51.0mm
Fursatganj 45.4mm
Bahraich 34.0mm
Sultanpur 29.6mm
Balrampur 23.5mm
Ayodhya 19.2mm
Meerut 19.0mm
Lucknow 15.1mm
Barabanki 13.8mm
Etah 13.5mm
Bareilly 12.7mm
Baghpat 12.5mm
Hardoi 9.6mm
Shahjahanpur 8.0mm
Jaunpur 5.5mm
Aligarh 1.8mm

Similarly, the Himalayas experienced much needed good rainfall during the past week which helped in restricting the forest fires over the hilly states but at the same time, some intense Hailstorm activities were reported causing hail damage to the apple orchards.

Rainfall figures from the hills ending 8:30 am on 5 May:

• Uttarakhand:

Kichha 34.5mm
Dangoli 32.5mm
Raiwala 30.5mm
Garud 22.0mm
Kotdwar 20.0mm
Kashipur 17.0mm
Munsiyari 16.0mm
Asharori 14.5mm
Koti 13.5mm
Chakrata 12.2mm
Kalsi 11.5mm
Nainital 11.0mm
Khatima 11.0mm
Dharchula 7.0mm

• Jammu and Kashmir

Gulmarg 28.6mm
Batote 16.8mm
Banihal 15.6mm
Udhampur 13.0mm
Bhaderwah 13.0mm
Kukernag 12.3mm
QaziGund 12.0mm
Srinagar 11.3mm
Jammu 10.6mm
Kathua 9.0mm
Konibal 8.5mm
Awantipura 6.8mm
Pahalgam 6.4mm
Katra 6.0mm
Kupwara 4.3mm
Mirpur 1.6mm

• Himachal Pradesh

Kasauli 20.5mm
Pacchad 17.3mm
Dharamshala 15.0mm
Una 14.2mm
Dalhousie 13.0mm
Jhandutta 10.2mm
Saloni 9.4mm
NainaDevi 8.4mm
Nahan 8.0mm
Chamba 6.0mm
Kheri 5.6mm
Banjar 5.2mm
Berthin 4.5mm
Paonta 4.4mm
Shimla 4.1mm
Ghumarwin 4.0mm
Kahu 2.5mm

East India is also witnessing some good pre-monsoon rains, Many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Chhattisgarh reported on and off rains throughout the past week and heatwave Conditions have been abated from most parts.

Rainfall figures from stations of West Bengal and Odisha ending 8:30 am on 7 May.

Canning 93.6mm
Panipolia 75.0mm
Bengunia 65.0mm
Nayagarh 64.0mm
Burdwan 60.0mm
Cuttack KVK 40.5mm
Bhubaneswar 36.5mm
Chandbali 31.6mm
Uluberia 28.7mm
Bankura 23.0mm
Puri 21.9mm
Kalaikunda 21.2mm
Paradeep 18.0mm

Under the influence of Well Marked Low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal Heavy to Very Heavy Rains is reported from Parts of Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the last 24 hours ending 8:30 am on 7 May:

LongIsland 152.0mm
MayaBandar 105.0mm
PortBlair 33.9mm
HutBay 29.3mm
Nancowry 11.2mm
Car Nicobar 9.0mm

As per IMD data, total pre-monsoon rains in India from 1 March till 6 May:

• India as a whole recorded a total of 58.8mm rainfall against the average of 79.8mm, departure from normal Stands at -26%.

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 73.8mm against the average of 58.8mm, +26% departure from normal.

• East & North East India: Actual 225.7mm against the average of 221.1mm, +2% departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 17.6mm against the average of 85.2mm, -79% departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 8.5mm against the average of 20.3mm, -58% departure from normal.

All India weather forecast for next week till 14th May:

• The Bay of Bengal is expected to host the first Cyclone of the year 2022 by Sunday, it will be named “Asani”. This name is given by Sri Lanka.

• The Low Pressure Area over South Andaman Sea & adjoining has become Well Marked Low-Pressure Area and persisted over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea at 0830 hours IST of today, the 7th May, 2022. It has further intensified into into a Depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal in the afternoon hours of 7 May and is expected to develop further into a Cyclonic Storm over the East-central Bay of Bengal on 8th May. It is very likely to continue to move northwestwards till 10th May evening and reach West central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts. Thereafter, it is very likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move towards Northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast.

Satellite Imagery of the Depression in the South east Bay of Bengal on as on 7 May evening

As the Indian Meteorological Department GFS model, the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and NCEP GFS suggesting the chances of landfall over the Coastal Andhra Pradesh or Odisha are low day by day, if the system recurve under the influence of approaching Westerly Trough, it will not make a direct landfall in Indian mainland, however parts of Odisha, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh to experience strong winds and some heavy rainfall as the tropical system is expected to approach very close to the coast.

The Weather Report North India braces for another dry spell east and south to immerse in rainfall

India Meteorological Department Forecasted Track of the cyclone and the cone of uncertainty based on 0600 UTC of 7 May

• After a brief relief from the heatwave conditions in North and Central India, weather conditions are once again Expected to become dry over the upcoming week.

The flow of North West Winds will make a comeback in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra under the influence of heatwave conditions are expected to rebuild in the region by early next week.
Places in Rajasthan, Bundelkhand and Vidarbha may experience maximum temperatures around 46 to 48°C from Wednesday onwards, whereas parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi NCR might get close to 45°C by then.

• Parts of Himalayas typically Kashmir, North Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will see on and of Light to Moderate rainfall during the upcoming week but chances remain low for very significant Weather development as Western Disturbances are expected to be week.

• The summer showers are expected to persist in Peninsular India mainly over Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, Region may experience strong Thunderstorms, Gusty winds and lightning strikes during the evening hours.

• Under the influence of the Bay of Bengal system, Moisture incursion will increase over North East India leading to more moderate to heavy rainfall in the states during the upcoming week

Regionwise detailed weather forecast till 14 May:

North India:

Significant Weather synopsis:

• Weak Western Disturbance over Western Himalayas.

• Dry north west winds in the western plains and Thar desert.

• Moist Easterlies over foothills of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Chandigarh.

Weather conditions are expected to remain mainly dry over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh till 14 may as no major weather system to Impact the region.

With every passing day, there will be rise in day Temperatures by 1-2°c from current levels. The Dry Westerly winds will turn hot and Heatwave is expected to make comeback over most parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh between 10 to 14 May.

Places in East Uttar Pradesh and foothills, North Haryana and Chandigarh will experience Easterlies winds during this week leading to Humid and sweaty weather.

Under the influence of the weak Western Disturbances isolated to scattered light to moderate rains are expected to continue in Kashmir, the upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand till 14th May, meanwhile the chances of heavy precipitation is low around this time.

Expected minimum and maximum Temperature Range forecast till 14 May:

• Punjab: 23.0 to 28.0°C, 38.0 to 44.0°C

• Haryana: 24.0 to 29.0°C, 40.0 to 46.0°C

• Rajasthan: 26.0 to 33.0°C, 43.0 to 48.0°C

• Delhi NCR: 23.0 to 29.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C

• Uttar Pradesh: 25.0 to 33.0°C, 37.0 to 47.0°C

Central India:

Significant weather synopsis:

• Dry and Hot North Western winds.

Under the influence of the Hot winds the Central region will observe hot and dry weather this week, very hot Northerly winds from Thar desert to keep Temperatures at the heatwave levels.

Once again the Heatwave is expected to intensify in central India and the maximum temperature is estimated to be around 46°C to in stations of Vidarbha and around 45°c in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh by mid-week.

Due to the heating in central India, some instability may develop in the evening hours which may lead to some isolated thunder development and light rains in Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh this week.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature range Forecast till 14 May:

• Gujarat: 26.0 to 32.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C

• Maharashtra: 23.0 to 30.0°C, 37.0 to 48.0°C

• Madhya Pradesh: 25.0 to 32.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C

• Chhattisgarh: 26.0 to 33.0°C, 39.0 to 45.0°C

East and South India:

Under the impact of tropical cyclone Asani, weather warnings have been issued by the Indian Meteorological Department.

Rainfall warning:

• 10 May: Light to moderate rainfall likely at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal Odisha and adjoining areas of north coastal Andhra Pradesh from 10th evening

• 11 May: Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places likely over coastal Odisha and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal.

Wind warning:

• 8 May: Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 km/h gusting to 75 km/h is likely to prevail over Southeast and adjoining East-central Bay of Bengal and would gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 65-75 gusting to 85 km/h over the same region from 8th May evening. Squall wind speed reaching 40-50 km/h gusting to 60 km/h is likely to prevail over Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

• 9 May: Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 km/h gusting to 85 km/h is likely to prevail over central parts of the Bay of Bengal.

• 10 May: Gale wind speed reaching 80-90 km/h gusting to 100 km/h is likely to prevail around the system centre over West central and adjoining Northwest & East central Bay of Bengal. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 km/h gusting to 60 km/h is likely over coastal districts of north Andhra Pradesh.

• 11 May: Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 km/h gusting to 90 km/h is likely to prevail over northwest and adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 km/h gusting to 60 km/h is likely over coastal districts of Odisha and adjoining coastal north Andhra Pradesh.

Sea condition:

• 8 May: Sea condition is very likely to become high over Southeast & adjoining East central Bay of Bengal. The sea condition over the Andaman Sea would gradually improve becoming rough

• 9-10 May: Sea condition is likely to become high over central parts of Bay of Bengal on 9 May and over West central and adjoining Northwest and East-central Bay of Bengal on 10 May.

• 11 May: Sea condition is likely to become high over Northwest and adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal

Fishermen warning:

• Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea and adjoining the southeast Bay of Bengal during 8 May.

• Fishermen are advised not to venture into East Central Bay of Bengal on 8 May.

• Fishermen are advised not to venture into central parts of the Bay of Bengal on 9 and 10 May and over Northwest Bay of Bengal on 10 and 11 May.

• Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to coast.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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